Deli Chen


2019

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Incorporating Fine-grained Events in Stock Movement Prediction
Deli Chen | Yanyan Zou | Keiko Harimoto | Ruihan Bao | Xuancheng Ren | Xu Sun
Proceedings of the Second Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing

Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement prediction. Firstly, we propose a professional finance event dictionary built by domain experts and use it to extract fine-grained events automatically from finance news. Then we design a neural model to combine finance news with fine-grained event structure and stock trade data to predict the stock movement. Besides, in order to improve the generalizability of the proposed method, we design an advanced model that uses the extracted fine-grained events as the distant supervised label to train a multi-task framework of event extraction and stock prediction. The experimental results show that our method outperforms all the baselines and has good generalizability.

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Group, Extract and Aggregate: Summarizing a Large Amount of Finance News for Forex Movement Prediction
Deli Chen | Shuming Ma | Keiko Harimoto | Ruihan Bao | Qi Su | Xu Sun
Proceedings of the Second Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing

Incorporating related text information has proven successful in stock market prediction. However, it is a huge challenge to utilize texts in the enormous forex (foreign currency exchange) market because the associated texts are too redundant. In this work, we propose a BERT-based Hierarchical Aggregation Model to summarize a large amount of finance news to predict forex movement. We firstly group news from different aspects: time, topic and category. Then we extract the most crucial news in each group by the SOTA extractive summarization method. Finally, we conduct interaction between the news and the trade data with attention to predict the forex movement. The experimental results show that the category based method performs best among three grouping methods and outperforms all the baselines. Besides, we study the influence of essential news attributes (category and region) by statistical analysis and summarize the influence patterns for different currency pairs.